Black Marlin — Research & Methodology (v1)
Last updated: 2026-02-15
This page documents the variables we use for Black Marlin (v1), the open-access URLs behind each driver, verbatim quotes, and what is research-backed vs calibrated. We do not publish proprietary weights, caps, or equations.
How it works (overview)
Black Marlin is an offshore all-day rating built from phase (quarter/half-moon peak), overlap, SST-only ocean block, and GBR-timed seasonality. Research chooses the drivers; we calibrate weights and caps so the output maps to 1.0–5.0. Exact values are proprietary.
Variables (what's research-backed vs calibrated)
Research-backed means the driver/pattern/mechanism is supported by open-access sources. Calibrated means we chose the exact curve shape/thresholds/weights/caps to produce a stable 1.0–5.0 score and to avoid overclaiming from region- or gear-specific studies.
Moon phase (quarter phases / “half-moons”)
Research-backed (GBR diaries): higher CPUE during half-moons and ~30–40% lower during new or full moons.
Pepperell et al. 2025 (open access): DOI • PDF
“Moon phase had a non-linear relationship with higher CPUE during a half moon and approximately 30%–40% lower during new or full moons (Fig. 7e).”
Seasonality (GBR timing)
Research-backed: a GBR spawning aggregation forms in Oct–Nov; the charter season is Sep–Dec with peak CPUE Oct–Nov.
Domeier & Speare 2012 (open access): PLOS ONE full text
Calibrated: we apply GBR-timed seasonal multipliers (Sep–Dec boosted, Oct–Nov peak); exact values are proprietary.
Environmental variables (verification)
This section documents what the papers say (verbatim quotes) and then shows how PrimeBite maps that into a stable rating (calibrated thresholds + caps).
SST (SST-only ocean block)
Setyadji & Fahmi 2020 (open access): DOI • PDF
“In this study, high CPUE occurred between 29–31°C...”
“... SST and SSH were statistically significant when incorporated into the models, but it allegedly wasn’t the main driver...”
Calibrated: missing SST is treated as neutral; we apply an ocean cap and cold/warm bands; exact thresholds are proprietary.